The Cambridge Dictionary defines “projected growth index” ( projected growth rate) and the rate at which something is growing in the near future. It is a generous definition, one that applies equally well to macroeconomic ( GDP projected growth rate ) and corporate finances ( dividend projected growth rate ).

For the purposes of this post, we’ll be seeing several formulas and terms used to calculate growth rates projected for sales and dividends of companies. We will   try as much as growth in terms of percentages, as well as real dollars, and we will use previous performance to help reach as accurate estimate as possible.

Índice de crecimiento proyectadoImage source: D. Steven White

As you read this article on definitions cups of growth, formulas and calculators, remember that these can only be assumptions. They are based on   assumptions, taking into account new customers, potential costs and annual growth rates. Any projections about their earnings should be allowed a certain amount of inaccuracies.

The index formula sales growth for company

Why would an investor of an interest in annual sales growth projections? Well, simply put, because that’s where everything started for you as a shareholder. If the company is not managed to do well in terms of sales, there is a great possibility that their income will fall and with it, their profitable dividends.

So, here’s how to calculate the projected growth rate for annual sales:

Companies file their sales for the previous year in its annual financial statement. So, then, let’s focus on sales next year. Look at the following example:

Company   A made   $ 1 billion in revenue last year. Projections of   increased sales of the company itself reach 8%, which adjusts sales next year at $ 1.08 billion. But take the presumption even later and   itemize to get a deeper insight.

Assume that the company knows that it will add 10 accounts next year. If customers continue to buy the same price they did last year, this results in a boost in profits of $ 200. That’s   $ 1.2 billion in earnings for the next year-or 20% of projected growth rate

This formula is important,   because it is a good yardstick with which it can measure launching new products against products that Company A is selling. You can guess the rate at which a particular product is helping raise net earnings of a company. This, in short, has an effect on the cash flow of the company, growth and other operational costs.

All these sophisticated analyzes start the same index number: The growth rate projected sales. Of course, this will also be reflected in the growth of dividends from a company in which hurgaremos later.

What is a sustainable growth rate?

The sustainable growth rate of a company. Commonly abbreviated as SGR, it can be defined as follows:

The maximum growth threshold that the company can reach before it is forced to increase its “financial leverage”.

In plain language, it is how far the company can grow revenues generated internally, without having to borrow money from external sources. It is useful to know how a company can stretch their own margins of growth, because it helps the administration to decrypt:

  • A growth strategy long term ;
  • How much capital can acquire ;
  • Cash flow forecast;
  • A strategy for how much money you can borrow the company.

Índice de crecimiento proyectado

Image source]: Wikipedia

Here the formula for the sustainable growth rate:

ROE means “Return on Equity” (financial profitability) while DPR is the “dividend payout ratio” (Index gain dividends) Here’s an example:

Company B has a net income of $ 2 million. The shareholders equity is $ 8 million. It has paid dividends reaching $ 750,000. The ROE   of the company is 25%, ie $ 2 million / $ 8 million. Your DPR is 37.5%, ie $ 750,000 / $ 2 million. So, for growing in sustainability, the company needs to maintain a growth rate of 15,625% (ie, 25% x (1-37.5%) = 15.625%.

In other words, if the company maintains this growth rate, you can definitely do so without having to borrow money.   There is also another way for the company to grow at an even faster rate of 25%: You can eliminate the payment of dividends.

And now, let’s see how it is calculated the growth rate of dividends:

How to calculate dividend growth rate

What’s dividend growth rate?

Here a useful definition for you:

It is the annualized growth rate of a stock dividend experiences over a certain period of time, expressed in percentages.

What’s the time? How is it determined? It can be any time you want to see, calculated by the least squares method, developed by the mathematician Carl Gauss in 1793.

Índice de crecimiento proyectado

Image Source: Scientific & Academic Publishing

This method typically used estimates and regression analysis is most commonly used to determine the smallest sum of the squares of the distances between a given number of points. In any case, if the least squares method is very complex, one can always go to a simple annualized amount for the time range being analyzed ..

Why is it important to the growth rate of dividends?

Now it’s time to introduce another concept that is essential for investors: The  pattern of increasing dividends at constant rates. (D ividend discount model ) This model pricing safety takes the estimated future value of the dividends of an action as an important relationship for the share price. So, deducts additional internal growth exceeding the estimated growth rate in dividends.

The dividend discount model is looking at the net present value of a share and analyzed through the predicted value of dividends per share. If and present value of future dividends is greater than the current value of the stock market, then action is overrated, if less, the action is undervalued.

Although not a rule set in stone, considering all companies that have a solid record of dividend growth are usually considered safe and profitable long – term investments.   At the same time, the dividend model has some limitations:

  • It can not be applied to companies that do not pay dividends.
  • It can be difficult to predict the growth rate of dividends, since they are discretionary.

To better understand DDM, consider the following example:

The company ‘s shares are traded at C $ 25 per share. Say you want to invest in them, but also want to make sure they are a good investment, ROI of at least   12% .you research on the company and discover that pay $ 3 in annual dividends, with a growth rate of dividends predicted 4 % by year.

We connect all those numbers in the formula the dividend discount model:

For specific company we are analyzing, the numbers are the   following:

This indicates that the present value of future dividend is larger than the current market price market price of the action ie, the action is undervalued.

Implied growth rate of dividends

The ROE of a particular company can be calculated according to the following formula:

In equation and above, (g) sets the rate of profit growth , while (p) is the rate of return of dividends.   Tucking the rate of return on the shares and profits estimated dividends from a company   you can . calculate its earnings growth rate   See the following example:

Company D has an ROE of 10% and a rate of pay dividend of 20% .This   company information is sufficient to calculate its expected growth rate of earnings. We enter the information in the above formula:

g = ROE * (1-p)

g = (10%) * (1-20%)

g = (1) * (1-2)

g = .08

g = 8%

Changing policies dividends

Changes in dividend policies in a company   are typically good indicators as to their estimated earnings. That’s because companies pay dividends only after their internal cash needs have been met. If the dividend payout ratio is cut, this may give cause for concern to investors of a company.

The logic here is that the company is either:

  1. Not making enough money to cover its internal needs
  2. It has increased its domestic money to Pontus where profits can not cover current needs.

Say a company lower the rate of dividend payment for shares of   $ .50 to $ .25. How do you think the shareholders react? Presumably, they began to ask if the company is going through hard times. Have you lost your growth rate? Already they are not making as much money as they used to?

In such a scenario, it is not uncommon prices of the shares of a company to fall. Also, changes in dividend policies have been known to impact customers a company ie, the type of investors interested in owning some action in that company.

Índice de crecimiento proyectado

Image source: Relia, Inc.

Capital gains and dividends are subject to   tax in a different way in which capital gains benefit from lower taxes. Depending on the Inland Revenue section in which they are a shareholder decide in favor of profits or dividends. The higher the Inland Revenue section in which the shareholder, less likely to want to dividend payments is high.

Where to find the rate of dividend growth.

As explained above, the evolution of dividends   is not easy to predict, simply because such payments are discretionary and some companies do not immediately open their values. Even so, a company that do not have a strong record of growth in dividends proudly, very commonly, will present information on their websites.

To find information on the growth rate of dividends a company, go to their website and check their reports finances. In its most recent report, usually you will find information of at least five years.   Note that companies have different ways to present this information and the main difference between them lies mainly in the number of years included in the data. The more information you can be at your fingertips, the more likely the company is proud of its own evolution in terms of dividend payments.

An easy way to calculate growth is using the calculator of Investopedia: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) . The CAGR of an investment is a mere (but powerful) tool to compare the return on an investment year after year, all this, in different types of investment. Here is a concise definition of CAGR:    

Compound Annual Growth Rate is a mathematical formula that calculates the average growth rate   annual investment over any period of time that typically is longer than one year.

For calculating the CAGR   of an investment, you need three different types of information:

  • The value of the investment at the end of the time period you are analyzing .;
  • The initial value of the investment;
  • The number of years you are watching.

This is the formula   CAGR:

Keep in mind that CAGR is not a real number. It does not represent the real rate of return you get from your investments.

Think of it as an imaginary number, which helps describe the growth rate of their investment,   only if these investments grow at a steady pace. Now, as most investors know things are rarely as easy and simple in reality. Too often, investment portfolios grow to inconsistent indexes. But if you want a clearer picture of the ROI of your portfolio, CAGR is the indicator that you want to watch.

Do not worry if it does not sound very logical CAGR for now. It is one of those concepts that makes more sense when you see how it works in a concrete example:

E investor wants to get the best ROI from your investment portfolio. It includes both shares and property, and the investor E is not sure what is giving the best ROI. 

The current value of their investment is $ 1,500, while the initial value was $ 1,000, and first invested three years ago. Clear your portfolio of stocks has not grown uniformly: it has seen increases of 200% in some quarters, but also falls 50%. Meanwhile, her stock portfolio has increased in value from $ 100,000 to $ 130.000.

E investor could try to figure out what type of investment   gives way   to better ROI to look at each index analyzed growth. But to get a clearer picture, CAGR applies and receives a smoother gain in the   time horizon   of your investment.

CAGR portfolio:

[(1.500 / 1.000) ^ 1/3] -1 = (0.3333 ^ 1.5) – 1

          = 0.1447

                                       = 14.5%

Here, the CAGR formula   is applied to its portfolio of properties:

[(130.000 / 100.000) ^ 1/3] -1 = (0.3333 ^ 1.3) – 1

          = 0.0914

                                       = 9.14%

To continue growing its portfolio with a satisfactory ROI, the investor E decide to opt for action on property.

The CAGR is a very simple and flexible measure, which makes it perfect for a wide range of uses. In the case of dividends, this measure takes into account the very nature of the market: volatility. Without it, it would be very difficult to interpret the annual investment growth. Growth is inconsistent, especially when dealing with a type of investment known for its discretionary nature.

Note that CAGR should not be used alone because, as in the case of all measures, comes with many limitations:

  1. Volatility. Do not fall into the trap of assuming that growth is uniform, simply because a particular stock index shows some growth. Always keep in mind the values that catered to calculate the CAGR
  2. Predictability. No matter how consistently has grown a particular stock over a period of time, do not assume that growth will continue at the same pace without fail. Many factors contribute to the growth rate, including market volatility and many other aspects.
  3. Representation. An impressive CAGR over three years may be hiding a much scarcer for index, say, the last 5 years. Always ask to see such historical information as it becomes available and also do your own research to see if the information is consistent with other measures of other companies.

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